nike says its $250 running shoes will make you run much faster. what if that’s actually true?
10% how about? Or 2 percent?
Nike Zoom Vaporfly 4%-
A flexible, expensive shoe released to the public a year ago --
These questions were raised in the recent history of long-distance running.
Nike says the shoe is about 4% better than its best racing shoes, measured by the amount of energy runners consume while running.
It\'s an amazing statement that efficiency has improved by nearly six minutes to three minutes.
An hour marathon, or a four-minute race. Hour marathon
According to the New York Times\'s latest analysis of race data for approximately 500,000 Marathon and Half Marathon runs since 2014, this may be accurate.
Using Strava\'s public competition report and shoe record, Strava is a fitness app that claims to be a social network of athletes, The Times found, vaporflys runners run 3 to 4% faster than similar runners wearing other shoes and more than 1% faster than the next one
Fastest racing shoes
We found that the difference was not chosen by faster runners to wear shoes, runners to wear shoes in easier races, or to turn to the mist after running more training miles
On the contrary, the analysis shows that in the race between two marathon runners of the same ability, runners wearing vaporizers will have a real advantage over competitors who do not wear vaporizers.
Nike Vaporflys contrast to other popular running shoes. . .
When we use statistical models based on the age, gender, race history and other information of the runner, in order to measure the effect of the shoe, when we compare changes in race time between runners groups running the same pair, when we measure the finish time after runners switch to new shoes, when we change shoes, the advantages of runners wearing vaporizers are consistent for slower players and faster players;
Men and women;
A contestant who attends a second marathon or a fifth marathon. The Vaporflys —
$250 retail price per pair
Nike released widely to the public last summer.
Unlike most running shoes, they have carbon
The mid-bottom fiber board, which stores and releases energy at every step, is designed to act as a slingshot or slingshot to push the runner forward.
Compared to typical training shoes, evaporated shoes are thought to wear out soon: some runners say they lose their effectiveness after about 100 miles.
The apparent effectiveness of these shoes highlights a problem that has plagued sports officials for decades: how to determine which technological advances constitute an unfair competitive advantage.
Golf officials prohibit the use of certain balls that fly higher. F. L.
The use of sticky substances that help athletes catch the ball is prohibited, and swimming officials prohibit the use of high sticky substances.
It is said that the buoyancy and speed of this technology suit have improved.
People think that the number of swimsuits used will be reduced by 2%-
Comparable to the obvious advantage of Nike Vaporflys Over nextbest-
Perform popular shoes in our data.
The governing body of athletics, the International Association of Athletics Federations, has rules for shoes, but these rules are vague: \"Shoes cannot be built to give athletes any unfair help or advantage.
It does not specify what this advantage might be.
The rules also stipulate that, in the spirit of the universality of sports, shoes \"must be reasonably available to all.
The vaporizer was sold out soon.
In the secondary market, the price of a pair may be more than $400.
Nike\'s latest version of the shoe, elite Flyprint, is sold and has a limited number of 2018 London Marathon runners in London at a cost of £ 499 or about $650.
Asked if the shoes fit the track and field rules, a Nike spokesman wrote in an email that the shoes \"fit all I. A. A. F.
No special inspection or approval is required for product requirements.
\"Yannis Nikolaou, spokesman for I. A. A. F.
While it is accurate to say that the vaporizer is legal, it is actually more accurate that there is no evidence that the vaporizer should not be legal, he said.
\"We need evidence to prove that there is a problem with the shoes,\" he said . \".
\"We have never asked anyone to bring some evidence to convince us.
\"The ideal experiment to measure how much shoes have an impact on race performance may include a series of marathons on a variety of courses, where runners randomly assign different running shoes.
The experiment doesn\'t exist yet, but almost every weekend, when thousands of amateur runners take part in the race and upload their race data, something similar happens around the world --
Collect through a smartphone or satellite watchto Strava.
These data generally include statistics such as the total time of the runner, the division of each mile, and the map of the runner\'s route. In about one-
In the third game of Strava, athletes reported data on the shoes they wore.
The following is the report of three contestants at 2017 New York marathon after three games.
Hour pass: Don\'t wear shoes reportedNike Zoom Vaporfly 4% Brooks LaunchNo shoes reportedNike Zoom Vaporfly 4% LaunchBased LaunchNo shoes reportedNike Zoom Vaporfly 4% Brooks races in more than 700 countries from 2014, the Times collected results from about 280,000 marathons and 215,000 half-marathon races. (
These race records are public, but The Times has obtained permission from every athlete mentioned in this article. )
Below, we describe four ways to measure the effect of a shoe.
Advantages of this approach: trying to control race conditions, weather, gender, age, pre-match
Race training and race time before a runner.
Disadvantages of this approach: Still not a randomized controlled trial.
We have a lot of knowledge about runners in our data set, including their age, gender, race history, and in some cases how much training they do a few months before the race.
We also know the race itself, including the time distribution of runners and the weather of the day.
We can put all this information into a model to try to estimate the change in runner time from previous races.
After controlling all of these variables, our model estimates that shoes have improved by about 4% over what the runners had previously expected.
Including the uncertainty of the estimated value, the vaporizer is an obvious outliers, which is one of the only popular shoes we can really say, what\'s the difference.
Compared to the effect of wearing any other shoe, this model estimates the effect of wearing a bubble.
It estimates a change in estimated race time for the runner\'s last race taking into account the age, gender, race history, training mileage (
For those athletes whose training logs are open)
Weather conditions on the day of the competition.
There are several statistical methods available for this data set
We tried it a few times.
None of them are perfect, but the effect of the shoes is more or less consistent in every way we try: whether we include training miles or omit them;
Whether weather data is included or ignored;
Or do we simulate a change in time after changing shoes, or do we simulate a change in average time for runners.
Of course, these observations do not constitute a randomized controlled trial.
Runners choose to wear vaporizers;
They\'re not randomly assigned.
A statistical method of trying to solve this problem uses a method called propensity score, which tries to control the possibility of people wearing shoes in the first place.
We tried it too.
Our estimates have not changed.
Advantages of this approach: track athletes with similar abilities to run under the same conditions.
The downside of this approach is that runners can save their special shoes when they want to have a quick race.
Tony hartoov and Marios esinho don\'t know each other.
In fact, they live across the coast.
But they have something in common: in 2017 Boston Marathon, none of them got the time they wanted.
But they failed together, only nine seconds apart and two wrong minutes in three hours.
The race was one of the hottest in years, with temperatures close to 80 degrees, and after 21 miles or so of the famous Heartbreak Mountain, both runners were off speed, and a lot slower in the last few miles of the game.
Running the marathon in less than three hours is a sign of elite runners, and Boston is one of the world\'s most prestigious races.
In April, these people came back to run it again.
The two changed a pair of different shoes. Mr.
Hartoonov is wearing the shoes of the Altra summer solstice.
Athineos Vaporflys is wearing.
Once again, the weather is a factor.
The 2018-meter race saw a sharp rise in downpours, strong winds, low temperatures and drop-outs.
The results are different this time. Mr. Athineos, a 42-year-
The old fellow in San Francisco completed the remaining 33 seconds at 2:59:26. But Mr.
Hartoov, 49, is a software engineer in the city of Mille, New York. J.
Can\'t keep warm, can\'t keep his pace again.
For the fifth year in a row, he failed to take a three-hour break at the Boston Marathon and ended at 3:07:17.
Given these conditions, it may not be surprising that neither runner has made shoes a factor in this year\'s results.
Given how different the game we know is, it seems unhelpful to compare the time between them.
But events like this still have meaningful information in general.
Instead of directly comparing the performance of the two races, we can compare the net changes of runners who went to the Vaporflys and the net changes of similar runners who did not go to the Vaporflys.
Of the 1,275 runners running Boston for two years in our data, 52 switched to Vaporflys in 2018 becauseAthineos did.
In general, those runners progress more time than those who do not attend.
This particular comparison may be too extreme for any study of shoes, perhaps so.
But Boston 2017 and Boston 2018 are just a couple of games with hundreds of matches in our data, most of them running the same two games, and some of them changing their shoes.
When we compare all of these matches in a variety of popular shoes, we see that on average, runners who have changed Vaporflys are many times better than similar runners who have changed any other popular shoe.
Advantages of this approach: Runners with different skills have the upper hand in several races.
Disadvantages of this approach: runners can save vaporizers because when they expect to be faster than normal, or vaporizers may in some way be different from other types of runners
Runners who use Strava are a group of passionate people: about one in every four people uploads data for two or more marathons, and about one in every 10 uploads three
Strava data allows us to track these repeat racers over time, and most importantly, when they change their shoes.
Glen Kassin, 49year-
An old PhD student at the Southern California Health Sciences University is one of these avid runners.
Since November 2015, he has uploaded five marathons to Strava, each wearing different shoes.
In January, he decided to participate in the steamboat race in the Houston Marathon.
New York 2015 Austin 2016 Chicago 2016 Boston 2017 Houston 2018Saucony TriumphNew balance Vazee PaceHoka one by one CliftonNew balance 1400Nike Vaporfly 4% month: 35: 223: to be taken: 303: 30: 233: to be taken of: 502: 56: 00New YorkAustinChicagoBostonHouston20152016201620172018New balancevazee pacehoka oneone cliftonnew Balance1400Nike zoomvaporfly 4% SauconyTriumph3: 35: 223: to be taken of: 303: to be taken of: 503: 30: 232: 56: Houston, sir.
Kasin\'s time in Boston has increased by about 18 minutes, which is much better than a pair of shoes.
He attributed his results, 2:56:00, to many things: the perfect weather, the fast course, and the climax of the two-year training program, which, on average, runs about 50 miles a week.
But he also thinks the shoes are different, he said.
\"Everything is aligned and then you throw your shoes on it,\" he said . \".
\"You think it\'s too easy to ask questions: What happened here?
When does it not feel easy? ”Mr.
Kasin is a single data point, but there are almost 4,000 runners like him in our data --
Men and women who have uploaded the results of five or more marathons.
When we aggregate the change in race time when runners change a new pair of shoes for the first time, runners who turn to Vaporflys are many times better than runners who turn to any other popular shoes.
Advantages of this approach: the measure of race scores that most runners know in their hearts.
The disadvantages of this method are: do not consider race conditions, increase in training mileage or aging.
Runners who turn to vaporizers may be different from other runners.
In many ways, Race Time is a rough way to measure performance.
Marathon is not like 400-
Dash or 100 m.
Freestyle: a marathon can be a hill or a sharp turn.
Others may be straight.
The weather is also important, and rising temperatures usually slow down time.
Race time, however, is the way runners qualify for famous races, such as the Boston Marathon, and most runners keep in mind their best time, whether the race they attend is flat or hilly, in hot or cold weather.
We can track runners in our data and with this in mind, it is more likely to test whether the runner\'s fastest time when switching to a vaporizer or any other type of shoe is more likely.
Consider two quick hands in our data: 35-year-old Stephanie Andre, a freelance writer from Okla Bixby.
Amanda Hicks, 34, is the product director in Washington, D. C. C.
Both women have uploaded several marathons to Strava and both have switched to vaporizers in their recent marathon. Mrs.
Andre took part in 2017 Chicago Marathon.
Hicks at the Boston Marathon 2018
By objective standards, both women have good races. Mrs.
Andrea ranked 22 at 2:41:50 in Chicago, fast enough to qualify for 2020 session of the United StatesS.
Olympic team selection
Hicks finished the game at 3:15:31 in Boston, becoming one of the top 5% of all female players of the day.
Here are the history of the two women\'s marathons that appear in our data, and the games in evaporation highlight: for various reasons unrelated to shoes, someone can run the personal best.
Runners can train more, execute better strategies on the day of the race, or run easier routes.
Anyway, we found that runners who turned to vaporizers were more likely to run fastest than runners who turned to almost any other popular shoe.
None of these methods are perfect, but they all give similar conclusions.
Whether we are looking for evidence of shoe importance in a marathon or a half marathon, we will find vaporizers at or near the top of the list.
More importantly, this pair of shoes tend to be outliers among all the popular shoes, indicating that something has happened in the competition of the Vaporflys, while in almost any other
Of course, nothing is certain, and we describe below some of the reasons for continuing to doubt.
But from our point of view, for \"Can the vaporizer really make the runner run faster ? \" We can give the most honest answer to this question.
Is a qualified yes.
Data is fromreported —and self-typed.
All of our analysis came from runners who publicly told Strava what shoes they were wearing during the race and they entered them manually.
The competition record contains about 33,000 different shoe descriptions, and our analysis depends on the normalization of these records. (
Even for shoes that are heavily sold like Vaporflys, Strava users have found 147 different ways to spell. )
We have done our best to identify spelling mistakes, remove obviously incorrect shoe records and integrate different variations of the same basic shoe.
But there is no perfect way to do it.
What\'s more problematic is that runners don\'t recognize their shoes accurately enough that we can\'t classify them.
Where possible, we try to identify the shoes with the most specific name, distinguishing between the shoes in the shoe series (or “franchise”).
But not all runners are so detailed.
This is the most common shoe in Adidas.
Adidas, for example, lists a dozen different sub-series belonging to its \"Boost\" series.
When the runner did not elaborate on this, we just identified the parent franchise for a given shoe.
This can cover high
Perform shoes within the franchise.
The shoe names posted here reflect a custom name normalization attempt, but we also tried an algorithmic approach.
Although the order of shoes has changed, the general pattern has not changed.
These estimates only compare Vaporflys with other popular shoes.
Perhaps the biggest limitation of this data set is that in order for us to come to a meaningful conclusion, it requires a large group of people to run in a pair of shoes.
This necessarily omits the less popular shoes, which, as far as we know, may be faster than the ones mentioned in this article.
This analysis only includes the 50 most popular shoes.
There are about 500 games or more in our data.
We may still be missing something that is not captured in the data.
It is only when runners know that they will run faster that they may wear vaporizers, or that the behavior of wearing vaporizers is related to other things that indicate that runners will run faster.
We acknowledge that every factor that affects marathon performance is beyond control.
But we have some evidence that it is shoes.
First of all, we identified the training mileage for the first few months of the training log\'s open runner race, which is an important sign that runners are getting more and more serious in race preparation.
Training mileage is a variable included in our statistical method, and when we match runners running in the same set of races, where possible, we not only try to match the race time, also trying to match the training scheme.
Second, the effect of shoes continues to exist in athletes of different levels --for three-
Hour marathon and four
An hour marathon.
Faster runners improve their race time at the same speed as slower runners.
In the end, if only when runners think they may have the best race, they play in the vaporizer, we may see fewer people on days when the weather is not very good.
But we don\'t see it.
Especially at 2018 Boston Marathon.
There are very few conditional races that runners will like.
In our data, none of the shoes are more popular among runners.
This is a large sample of runners.
People are so passionate about running that they upload information about all races and shoes to social media sites, which is not random.
But we believe that the data are broadly representative of the contestants.
In what is known as the world marathon
The largest and most competitive competition in the world
About one out of every six players uploaded the match data to Strava and made it public.
Not counting the Tokyo Marathon, about one for every five people does this: these runners are a little faster than the larger runner samples that other researchers have checked, but they are basically
Overall, about 600 different athletes wore vaporizers in 825 marathons and half marathon.
They are number 32.
The most popular shoes in the data.
Speed increase associated with vaporizer with Nike-
Research funded by researchers at the University of Colorado is published in the journal Sports Medicine.
The act of energy output measured in this experiment \"male elites run at different speeds on the treadmill, and it is concluded that on average, athletes exert 4% of energy on Vaporflys than other racing shoes.
They estimate that such savings will result in an increase of about 3% in three months. Hour marathon
Our findings are similar but less effective.
We found that the bubble is 1% faster than the next time.
The fastest running shoes in our data (Nike stripes)
But our sample includes more athletes, both men and women.
Improve your grades in the Vaporflys and then slow down the runners who change into other shoes.
There are very few runners in our data who meet this standard: we only count 24 such games.
But these runners are about 7% slower on average than when they wear a vaporizer. (
In 24 games, 17 games were slower and 7 games were faster. )
Is there a problem we haven\'t solved?
Find us on Facebook, Twitter or email.
Kevin Quealy has been a graphic editor and journalist for The New York Times since 2008.
He is also a senior Strava user, running the 2018 Providence marathon in the Vaporflys.
It\'s a good game, but it\'s not the best individual.
@ Kevin qjosh Katz has been a graphic editor and journalist for The New York Times since 2013.
He received a master\'s degree in statistics from New York. C.
He flew at the airport recently.
He found the experience unpleasant.
@ JshkatzGlenn Kasin offers photos of herself at the Boston and Houston Marathon, and Stephanie Andre offers photos of herself at the Chicago Marathon;
All the other photos are from MarathonFoto.